The BBC reported Sergio Aguero’s missed penalty against Chelsea on 8th May.
This was supposed to be a fitting finale, Aguero scoring the goal that seals Manchester City their fifth Premier League crown, just like he did for their first. However, he missed. He chipped the ball into the air and watched Chelsea goalkeeper Edouard Mendy catch it one-handed, allowed Chelsea a route back into the game.
Aguero apologised by saying “I would like to apologise to my teammates, staff and supporters for missing the penalty. It was a bad decision and I take full responsibility.”
Yes, he missed, but was he wrong?
A group of researchers examined the behavior of soccer goalies when faced with stopping a penalty kick. By examining 311 kicks, they found that goalies dove dramatically to the right or left side of the goal 94 percent of the time. The kicks themselves, however, were divided roughly equally, with a third going left, a third right and a third near the middle. This being the case, they found that goalies that stayed centered had a 60 percent chance of stopping the ball, far greater than the odds of going left or right.
Perhaps Chelsea goalkeeper Edouard Mendy followed the statistics. So to did Aguero, but that only works when the goalie dives left or right.
It looked embarrassing for Aguero, hence the apology, but what if he attempted to kick the ball left or right and Edouard Mendy decide to stand still. Do you think the crowd or Edouard Mendy’s teammates would have appreciated his ‘lack of effort’?
Yes, it’s also a story about investing.
How do you know when to take action and when not to take action? A team at Fidelity set out to examine the behaviours of their best-performing accounts in an effort to isolate the behaviours of truly exceptional investors. What they found may shock you. When they contacted the owners of the best-performing accounts, the common thread tended to be that they had forgotten about the account altogether! The key point is to forget purposefully not because you’ve forgotten or ambivalent.
Your investment process should guide you on when to take action and when not to take action. You need to play the percentages. Sergio Aguero was right to attempt the penalty. The statistics were in his favour. As an investor playing the percentages means your financial future will look better.