I read somewhere that “As a scientist, you are not optimistic, you think in likelihoods” When you are investing your money, should you think like a Scientist? Anyone can invest on the basis of optimism, as its hopefulness and confidence about the future or the success of something.
The role of wealth managers and asset managers is to communicate feel-good stories that make you feel optimistic. If you believe them because they make you feel optimistic, you’ll probably make decisions they want you to make. You’ve bought the story.
So how do you make your decisions more Scientific and based more on likelihoods? What are the chances you’ll end up with better outcomes if your decisions are more thoughtful than gut-related?
There is nothing wrong with gut decisions, but they need context. A more thoughtful approach will increase the likelihood of success. That needs a process. So what is your process?