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Occam’s Razor v Hickam’s dictum

Occams Razor In layman’s terms; the simplest explanation is usually the best one.

Doctor John Hickman once pointed out. “Patients can have as many diseases as they damn well please,”  A patient is statistically more likely to have a few common ailments than a single big one. Lots of things tend to happen at once, so the push to find one underlying cause to a patient’s ills can lead to false precision at best, misdiagnosis at worst.

When making financial decisions, it’s complicated.  It’s more about Hickam than Occams simplicity. Yet simplicity often wins the day because we want things easier to understand. We simply can’t know everything, so a summary or a story helps guide decisions.

The big financial institutions understand this.  To sell their products, they follow the principle of Occam.  Why?  They sell more.  Yes, we want things easier to understand, but never forget it is very complicated.

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